Elon Musk Will Likely Remain Tesla CEO, and Tweet Non-Stop: Prediction Markets
Also: Trump faces likely conviction, per Polymarket punters; CFTC hearing to discuss political betting ban.
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Prediction Markets
Also: Trump faces likely conviction, per Polymarket punters; CFTC hearing to discuss political betting ban.
Also, the CFTC wants to bar Americans from betting on elections – even though it’s already illegal in most U.S. states.
Continuing pro-Palestine protests won’t lead to Minouche Shafik having a fate similar to Claudine Gay, who was recently forced to resign as Harvard’s president, the prediction market signals. Plus: Kalshi bettors don’t think Taylor Swift will break her record.
An introduction to Futarchy and combinatorial prediction markets.
Are prediction markets the future of investigative journalism? Maybe, says Chris Brunet, whose reporting led to Claudine Gay’s resignation – though he’s yet to profit from his scoops.
Prediction market Kalshi is suing the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for denying its effort to list derivatives for betting on the outcome of political events – specifically which party will control each chamber of the U.S. Congress after an election.
(Jen Theodore/Unsplash, modified by CoinDesk)
Regulators said the plans weren’t in the public interest, after a court squabble involving rival service PredictIt
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission began a formal review and public comment period to evaluate prediction market Kalshi’s proposed contracts to bet on who will control Congress.