Polymarket Contradicts Its Oracle Service in Rarity for Prediction Market
Nearly all UMA voters said that the son of Donald Trump was not involved in the creation of the DJT token
Prediction Markets
Biden Likely to Win Popular Vote, but Lose Presidency, Prediction Market Signals
Plus: $DJT believers dispute the resolution of a Polymarket bet, insisting the “preponderance of evidence” shows Barron Trump’s involvement.
Trump and Biden Likely Won’t Shake Hands at Debate, Prediction Market Says
Meanwhile, there’s a prediction market on whether the U.K. newspaper The Guardian will correct an article about prediction markets.
Will Trump Trounce Biden? Polymarket Traders Are Betting on It.
With a 56% chance of winning, according to the prediction market’s traders, the former president has a 22-point lead over the incumbent, far bigger than what the polls indicate.
Trump Widens Lead Over With Biden (on Polymarket and PredictIt) After Courting Crypto Vote
Plus, how much longshot money was made betting on the SEC approving an Ethereum ETF?
U.S. CFTC Proposes Ban on Political Event Contracts
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) proposed a formal rejection of event contracts that bet on the outcome of political activity in a vote on Friday, beginning an effort to wall off U.S. customers from platforms that allow the trading of predictive contracts.
Elon Musk Will Likely Remain Tesla CEO, and Tweet Non-Stop: Prediction Markets
Also: Trump faces likely conviction, per Polymarket punters; CFTC hearing to discuss political betting ban.
Binance’s CZ Will Spend Less Than a Year in Prison, Polymarket Traders Bet
Also, the CFTC wants to bar Americans from betting on elections – even though it’s already illegal in most U.S. states.
Polymarket Odds Say Columbia University President Will Keep Job
Continuing pro-Palestine protests won’t lead to Minouche Shafik having a fate similar to Claudine Gay, who was recently forced to resign as Harvard’s president, the prediction market signals. Plus: Kalshi bettors don’t think Taylor Swift will break her record.
How to Design Better On-Chain Governance
An introduction to Futarchy and combinatorial prediction markets.