Polymarket Trading Explodes as 2024 Election Enters Uncharted Territory
Kamala Harris, the frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination after Joe Biden dropped out (Chris duMond/Getty Images)
Prediction Markets
The Protocol: Polymarket Feeds Political Junkies, With Nate Silver
In this week’s issue of CoinDesk’s blockchain tech newsletter, we look at the “alternative news source” that Polymarket’s prediction-betting site has become.
Polymarket Hires Nate Silver After Taking in $265M of Bets on U.S. Election: Report
As the U.S. presidential election enters its final stretch, crypto-based prediction market platform Polymarket is striking while the iron is hot by hiring popular statistician and writer Nate Silver as an adviser.
Trump Odds on Polymarket Hit Another All-Time High After Vance VP Pick
Traders on the crypto-based prediction market now see a 72% chance the former president will retake the White House.
U.S. Secret Service Chief Probably Won’t Be Fired, Polymarket Bets Signal
Plus: Another all-time high for Trump’s odds of victory; bettors think bitcoin will continue its green streak until the end of week.
Trump’s Odds of Victory Hit All-Time High on Polymarket After Shooting
The former president, who was injured at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday, now has a 69% chance of retaking the White House, according to traders on the crypto-based prediction market. Trump-themed Polifi tokens and crypto broadly also rose.
Biden Overtakes VP Harris as Likeliest Dem Nominee on Polymarket During President’s Press Conference (Update)
The president said he plans to stay in the race but “it’s important that I allay fears.”
Crypto-Friendly Sen. JD Vance’s Odds as Trump VP Pick Double on Polymarket
Traders on the crypto-based prediction market now see a 29% chance that the Ohio Republican will be former President Trump’s running mate, up from 14% a week ago.
Prediction Markets and Polls Both Got the French Election Wrong
Plus: Polymarket traders remain skeptical about Biden’s insistence he’s staying in the U.S. presidential race; will ETH fall to $2,630?
Biden’s Odds on Polymarket Little Changed After ABC TV Interview
The president’s chances of reelection remain 12% and his probability of dropping out stayed at 63%, according to traders on the crypto-based prediction market platform.