Kalshi Research Finds ‘Widespread Evidence’ of Strong Republican Momentum in U.S. Elections
A note from Kalshi’s market research team suggests the prediction market – polls gap can be explained by Harris’ sliding popularity with key demographics.
Prediction Markets
Does World Liberty Financial Count as Trump ‘Launching a Coin’? Polymarket Bettors Are Divided
Plus, a look at how PoliFi tokens are doing compared to prediction markets; there might be another #election2024 up north.
Trump Leads Harris on Polymarket After Musk Endorsement, but Trails in This Key State
Elon Musk says that prediction markets are more accurate than polls.
U.S. Election Betting: Regulated Presidential Markets Are Live, and Tiny Compared to Polymarket’s
With a month to go before Election Day, Kalshi and Interactive Brokers have listed prediction markets on the race for the White House.
U.S. Election Betting: Kalshi Preps Presidential Prediction Markets After Re-Launching Congressional Contracts
The CFTC “has failed to demonstrate that it or the public will suffer irreparable injury absent a stay pending appeal,” an appeals court said, clearing the prediction market to resume listing the contracts.
Trump Inches Closer to Harris on Polymarket as Betting Passes $1 Billion
Kamala Harris only leads by one percentage point, but is set to carry most of the swing states.
Polymarket Reportedly Seeks $50M in Funding, Mulls Token as Election Bets Surge
Investors in the proposed round would get warrants to buy tokens in the event the prediction market decides to issue one, The Information reported.
Caroline Ellison Most Likely Won’t Serve Time, Polymarket Traders Bet
The market is skeptical about Qualcomm’s Intel deal; prediction markets were the talk of the town at Token2049 in Singapore.
Prediction Markets Go to Washington(‘s Appeals Court)
The CFTC is working to ban political prediction markets. Its current goal: Get a federal appeals court to keep one from launching while it argues a judge was mistaken in overturning its rejection of Kalshi.
U.S. Election Betting: CFTC, Kalshi Both Grilled by Judges in Appeals Court
A panel of judges grilled attorneys for the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and prediction-betting platform Kalshi over the company’s efforts to launch political prediction markets in the U.S., without indicating whether they’d allow Kalshi to offer these products while reviewing a lower court’s ruling on the products.