Elon Musk Will Likely Remain Tesla CEO, and Tweet Non-Stop: Prediction Markets
Also: Trump faces likely conviction, per Polymarket punters; CFTC hearing to discuss political betting ban.
Polymarket
Polymarket Odds Say Columbia University President Will Keep Job
Continuing pro-Palestine protests won’t lead to Minouche Shafik having a fate similar to Claudine Gay, who was recently forced to resign as Harvard’s president, the prediction market signals. Plus: Kalshi bettors don’t think Taylor Swift will break her record.
Polymarket Traders See 32% Chance of No Fed Rate Cuts This Year
The hawkish shift in the market sentiment could dampen the demand for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies and technology stocks.
Polymarket Traders See 55% Chance of Second Trump Presidency
(NIPYATA!/Unsplash, modified by CoinDesk)
He Exposed Harvard President’s Plagiarism, Then Lost Money Betting on the Story
Are prediction markets the future of investigative journalism? Maybe, says Chris Brunet, whose reporting led to Claudine Gay’s resignation – though he’s yet to profit from his scoops.
‘Deniers Are Crypto’s Flat Earthers’ as Markets Flash 83% Odds of Bitcoin ETF Approval
The popular Polymarket market bet “Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15?” has attracted almost $1 million in volume from hundreds of users.
Polymarket Traders See 89% Chance of SEC Approving Spot BTC ETF by Jan. 15
Some investors have bought the “No side shares” of the prediction contract to hedge against potential delays in the SEC’s approval of spot ETFs.
Taiwanese Authorities Investigating Blockchain Betters over Polymarket Election Contract: Report
The Presidential and Vice Presidential Election and Recall Act specifically prohibits gambling on elections.
Polymarket Traders Betting on Sam Altman’s Fate Have Become Bipolar
24 hours ago, prediction markets were almost certain that Altman wouldn’t be back as OpenAI’s CEO. Now the market’s answer to that question has changed twice.
After GOP Debate, Blockchain Bettors See Ramaswamy as Most Formidable Trump Challenger
Betting lines didn’t change much as a result of Wednesday’s debate, but the Bitcoin-friendly entrepreneur has edged out Florida governor Ron Desantis this past week in the GOP’s race for second place.