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Polymarket
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) proposed a formal rejection of event contracts that bet on the outcome of political activity in a vote on Friday, beginning an effort to wall off U.S. customers from platforms that allow the trading of predictive contracts.
Also: Trump faces likely conviction, per Polymarket punters; CFTC hearing to discuss political betting ban.
Continuing pro-Palestine protests won’t lead to Minouche Shafik having a fate similar to Claudine Gay, who was recently forced to resign as Harvard’s president, the prediction market signals. Plus: Kalshi bettors don’t think Taylor Swift will break her record.
The hawkish shift in the market sentiment could dampen the demand for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies and technology stocks.
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Are prediction markets the future of investigative journalism? Maybe, says Chris Brunet, whose reporting led to Claudine Gay’s resignation – though he’s yet to profit from his scoops.
The popular Polymarket market bet “Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15?” has attracted almost $1 million in volume from hundreds of users.
Some investors have bought the “No side shares” of the prediction contract to hedge against potential delays in the SEC’s approval of spot ETFs.
The Presidential and Vice Presidential Election and Recall Act specifically prohibits gambling on elections.
24 hours ago, prediction markets were almost certain that Altman wouldn’t be back as OpenAI’s CEO. Now the market’s answer to that question has changed twice.