UPDATE: Polymarket Logs First $100M Month as Election Drama Heats Up
Odds that the president will drop out of the race surged as high as 50% after the debate before leveling off at 40% on the crypto-based prediction market.
Polymarket
Trump’s Odds of Victory Surge to 67% in Polymarket Post-Presidential Debate
Biden’s chances at becoming the Democratic nominee also slid to 70%, while Gavin Newsom’s odds jumped to 15%.
Polymarket Contradicts Its Oracle Service in Rarity for Prediction Market
Nearly all UMA voters said that the son of Donald Trump was not involved in the creation of the DJT token
Biden Likely to Win Popular Vote, but Lose Presidency, Prediction Market Signals
Plus: $DJT believers dispute the resolution of a Polymarket bet, insisting the “preponderance of evidence” shows Barron Trump’s involvement.
Trump and Biden Likely Won’t Shake Hands at Debate, Prediction Market Says
Meanwhile, there’s a prediction market on whether the U.K. newspaper The Guardian will correct an article about prediction markets.
Will Trump Trounce Biden? Polymarket Traders Are Betting on It.
With a 56% chance of winning, according to the prediction market’s traders, the former president has a 22-point lead over the incumbent, far bigger than what the polls indicate.
RoaringKitty a GameStop Billionaire by Friday? Crypto Traders Are Placing 50% Odds
A new market on betting application Polymarket has seen over $120,000 placed on Keith Gill making 10 figures on his GameStop equity and options holdings.
TRUMP Token Sinks After Former U.S. President Is Found Guilty in New York
Trump arrives at an NFT dinner in May 2024. (Danny Nelson/CoinDesk)
Ether Surges 17%, Polymarket Approval Chances Rocket as ETF Makes Regulatory Progress
The U.S. SEC has asked exchanges to update 19b-4 filings for ether ETFs ahead of a key deadline, suggesting potential approval progress, though approval is not guaranteed.
U.S. CFTC Proposes Ban on Political Event Contracts
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) proposed a formal rejection of event contracts that bet on the outcome of political activity in a vote on Friday, beginning an effort to wall off U.S. customers from platforms that allow the trading of predictive contracts.