If U.S. Election Is Disputed, Prediction Markets Could Face ‘Hornet’s Nest’
How will Polymarket and Kalshi resolve their presidential bets if there’s another Jan. 6 or Bush v. Gore situation?
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How will Polymarket and Kalshi resolve their presidential bets if there’s another Jan. 6 or Bush v. Gore situation?
At current prices, a $10,000 punt on Harris could equal a $25,000 payout if she wins the U.S. presidential election.
The final stretch of the U.S. presidential election is keeping traders on their toes, with BTC and Trump Polymarket odds taking a small hit.
One of the major breakout successes this year for the team behind layer-2 blockchain Polygon is Polymarket. But according to data, Polymarket has only brought in about $27,000 of transaction fees for Polygon PoS in 2024.
Low liquidity led to massive slippage for one entity trying to buy up Trump “yes” shares in a short period.
Better Markets is using Polymarket’s “French connection” as ammo against the prediction market’s regulated competitor.
The former president’s probability of retaking the White House slid to 59% Wednesday before rebounding.
If you think the Trump bulls are wrong, bet against them.
In just three weeks, Kalshi’s presidential prediction market has passed $30M in volume. It still trails Polymarket’s $2 billion.
A note from Kalshi’s market research team suggests the prediction market – polls gap can be explained by Harris’ sliding popularity with key demographics.