Although XRP has struggled to reclaim the $2 mark in 2026, insights generated by OpenAI’s ChatGPT suggest the cryptocurrency could end the year trading above that level.
According to ChatGPT, the most probable outcome for XRP by December 31, 2026, is a trading range between $1.75 and $2.05, with a weighted forecast of approximately $1.95 to $2.10.
The model assigned a 40% probability to XRP finishing the year between $1.70 and $2.10, a 30% probability of a stronger rally toward $2.10 to $3, a 20% probability of trading between $1.20 and $1.70, and a 10% chance of moving above $3.00.
Under its broader scenario analysis, ChatGPT estimated a bearish range of $1.20 to $1.40, a base case of $1.75 to $2.05, and a bullish target of $2.50 to $3.25.
The model noted that prices above $4 would require a significantly stronger catalyst than those currently driving the market.
Despite the constructive outlook, ChatGPT highlighted the $1.60 to $1.70 region as XRP’s most important resistance zone.
The cryptocurrency has struggled to establish a sustained breakout above those levels, making them a key hurdle for any move toward $2 and beyond.
According to ChatGPT, a decisive break above $1.70 would significantly strengthen the bullish case and increase the likelihood of XRP reaching the $1.80 to $2.00 range before year-end.
XRP fundamentals
ChatGPT identified spot ETF demand as the primary factor supporting XRP’s outlook heading into the final quarter of 2026.
Notably, market data indicates XRP ETFs have continued to attract institutional capital, with cumulative net inflows approaching $1.8 billion. September alone generated about $121 million in net inflows, highlighting sustained demand from investors.
The model also pointed to continued whale accumulation. Large holders have added approximately 470 million XRP worth more than $700 million in recent weeks, suggesting confidence in the asset’s medium-term prospects.
At the same time, exchange balances have declined sharply, with roughly 1.6 billion XRP leaving exchanges over a two-week period. Such movements are generally viewed as a sign that investors are transferring tokens into long-term storage rather than preparing to sell.
The model also flagged Ripple’s monthly escrow releases as a potential source of short-term supply pressure.
However, it noted that much of the released XRP is typically returned to escrow, limiting the impact on circulating supply.
XRP price analysis
By press time, XRP was trading at $1.51, up about 0.5% over the past 24 hours. However, on the weekly timeframe, the cryptocurrency remained down nearly 1%.
Technically, XRP remains comfortably above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $1.40 and 200-day SMA of $1.28.
This alignment indicates positive momentum across multiple timeframes. The fact that the 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA reinforces the broader uptrend and suggests buyers remain in control despite recent volatility.
Meanwhile, XRP’s 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 59.09, placing it in neutral territory.
While the indicator reflects growing buying pressure, it remains below the overbought threshold of 70, suggesting there is still room for further upside before momentum becomes stretched.
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