Prediction market traders are betting that SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) will end June 2026 with a market capitalization below $3 trillion, according to data from Polymarket.
The market, which asks whether SpaceX’s valuation will hit specific levels by June 30, assigns an 11% probability to the company reaching a $3 trillion market cap.
The odds fall to 3% for a $3.5 trillion valuation and just 1% for a $4 trillion valuation. Meanwhile, traders see only a 6% probability of SpaceX falling below a $1.5 trillion valuation.
Overall, current prediction market odds suggest traders view a move to $3 trillion as possible but unlikely before June 30.
The market’s highest implied probabilities remain concentrated below that threshold, indicating expectations that the stock could consolidate following its rapid post-listing gains.
The pricing suggests cryptocurrency market participants expect SpaceX’s valuation to remain largely within its current range through the end of the month, despite the stock’s strong post-IPO performance.
SpaceX stock cools down
Notably, after a massive post-IPO rally, SpaceX ended Friday’s session at $185 per share, down about 3.6% on the day, giving the company a market capitalization of roughly $2.4 trillion.
SpaceX completed its historic public debut in June 2026, raising approximately $75 billion at an initial valuation of around $1.8 trillion.
Following the IPO, shares surged as investor demand pushed the company’s market capitalization above $2 trillion and at times toward the $2.5 trillion range.
Meanwhile, the debate over the SpaceX market cap has intensified since the company’s public listing.
Bulls point to the company’s dominant position in commercial space launches, the continued expansion of Starlink, and the integration of artificial intelligence capabilities following its merger with xAI.
Supporters argue these businesses could drive substantially higher revenue over the coming decade. SpaceX generated roughly $18.7 billion in revenue during 2025, with Starlink serving as its primary profit-generating segment.
However, critics contend that the current SpaceX stock valuation already reflects highly optimistic growth assumptions.
At valuation levels above $2 trillion, the company trades at revenue multiples that significantly exceed those of most large-cap technology firms.
Concerns also remain about profitability, capital expenditure requirements, execution risks related to Starship development, and the potential impact of future share unlocks on the stock price.
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