Despite the nearly 10% recovery from Bitcoin’s (BTC) weekend lows, one prominent on-chain analyst took to X on June 15 to caution that it is unlikely the cryptocurrency’s next bull market is imminent.
Specifically, Ali Martinez highlighted in a social media post that the previous BTC market bottom came together with the digital asset’s price hitting the Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) level.
The analyst highlighted that the Bitcoin CVDD in mid-June 2026 stands at approximately $48,000, implying that the world’s premier cryptocurrency could see another major sell-off that might take it 28% lower before the bull market restarts in earnest.
Simultaneously, Martinez also linked an April X article in which he speculated on whether Bitcoin had, by that point, bottomed.
These are the key price levels to watch to accumulate Bitcoin ahead of a bull market
Though the text offered few definitive answers, it is notable that BTC recently bounced off of the expert’s ‘smart money’ accumulation level slightly below $60,000.
Indeed, Martinez highlighted at the time that falling below $63,111 would lead the cryptocurrency into a liquidity vacuum as it loses UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) range, creating the potential for a deeper plunge.
Additionally, the analyst highlighted that prices slightly below – between $56,000 and $60,000 – represent ‘the decade trendline’ and the zone in which ‘smart money’ tends to accumulate, perhaps explaining the digital asset’s bouncing off its upper bound during the latest downturn.
The remaining zones – described as critical for Martinez’s dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy – remain hypothetical at press time on June 16 and stand at the CVDD near $48,000 and in range of ‘absolute capitulation’ that bottoms at roughly $36,000, while the overall article implies that buying into the ongoing rally would, for the time being, not be a savvy investment.
Lastly, it is notable that the popular on-chain analyst assessed that Bitcoin’s historical patterns imply the cryptocurrency would find a bottom in October 2026 at approximately $38,000.
Why Bitcoin remains in a long-term downtrend
Elsewhere, BTC price performance since recording the all-time high (ATH) above $125,000 in late 2025 indicates the digital asset remains in a protracted downtrend as it has been recording a series of consecutive lower highs and lower lows.
Shortly after hitting the ATH, Bitcoin corrected toward $84,000 only to rally back above $96,000 by mid-January. The pattern repeated several times in 2026, slowly drawing down toward $6,000 and diminishing the temporary highs.
Overall, BTC is 24.07% in the red year-to-date (YTD), and even after the latest upsurge, its $66,453 press-time price is below the relatively stable range recorded between February and early April.
Lastly, the world’s premier cryptocurrency was in a similar pattern during the summer of 2024 and managed a breakout on an external event – the U.S. presidential election – creating the possibility of a similar occurrence in 2026, especially with the memorandum of undertaking (MOU) between Iran and the United States driving markets higher almost across the board.
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