Quadruple witching arrives tomorrow as markets brace for potential bitcoin volatility
Bitcoin tended to show muted performance on quadruple witching days in 2025, followed by weakness in the days to weeks after.
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Bitcoin tended to show muted performance on quadruple witching days in 2025, followed by weakness in the days to weeks after.
November’s expiry is due Friday at 08:00 UTC, with $9.4 billion in options expiry for bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s max pain price is $78,000, significantly lower than the current spot price.
The majority of the put open interest represent hedging activity and not outright downside bets: European Head of Research at Bitwise – Dragosch.
BTC futures expiring in March, June and September 2025 trade at prices greater than $100,000, according to data source Deribit.
“It looks like bitcoin options traders appear to be hedging their bets to the downside ahead of the U.S. election this week,” one observer said, noting pricier puts on the CME.
BTC’s implied volatility curve shows a noticeable kink on Oct. 5, signaling expectations for an unusually volatile Saturday.
Notional open interest in BTC options tied to U.S. elections. (Amberdata)
The uptick signals a bullish outlook, according to Wintermute.
Bitcoin traders are having a relook at the $200,000 call option after a gap of nearly three years.
The way ether options are priced suggests investor preference for bets that prices will fall, contradicting the bullish outlook presented by some analysts.
The expiry is Deribit’s largest so far and a record of almost $5 billion of options will expire in the money.