Though the gains have tapered somewhat during the most recent June 18 stock market session, acquiring SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) shares during the initial public offering (IPO) would have been a highly lucrative move already in the equity’s first week.

Initially, SPCX was sold at $135 and soared 37% to $185 by the latest closing bell, meaning that a $1,000 order would have turned into a stake worth $1,370 within just five trading days.

Additionally, despite the company opening at an exceptionally high $1.77 trillion valuation, it at one point soared to a high of $2.96 trillion when the SpaceX stock hit its all-time high of $225.64 on June 16. Even after the 3.56% Thursday decline to $185, the firm’s market capitalization is, at $2.44 trillion, roughly $670 billion above its original value.

SpaceX stock tailwinds and headwinds through summer of 2026

Looking ahead, continued strong performance of SPCX shares appears likely, but is far from guaranteed. In the stock’s first week in the public markets, it benefited from a combination of hype-driven demand, most shareholders being either unable or disincentivized to sell, and an unusually low float. 

A typical IPO sees somewhere between 15% and 25% of a firm’s equity released, while the figure for Elon Musk’s newer public firm stood below 5%, guaranteeing a severe mismatch between supply and demand.

In the weeks ahead, it is likely that SPCX will enjoy significantly more buying activity as index funds are forced to purchase following the shares’ inclusion in the Nasdaq-100. 

Why SpaceX stock might crash by end of 2026

On the flip side, retail investors might conclude that SpaceX has already presented an enticing selling opportunity with its initial upsurge, while insiders will see their stakes gradually unlocked, starting already in late July or early August.

Simultaneously, the firm’s performance in the longer horizons is somewhat dubious since the firm is almost entirely valued based on projections for future revenue – in the first quarter (Q1), 2026, the figure stood at $4.69 billion, and the company remains unprofitable.

For comparison, Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) – a technology giant with a similar valuation – recorded more than $181 billion in revenue and a net profit above $30 billion in Q1.

Lastly, while SpaceX is most famous for its rocket and satellite internet operations, the IPO filing identified artificial intelligence (AI) as the biggest source of potential future sales – an industry facing a cost crisis in June 2026 and one with no shortage of massive competitors at play.

Featured image via Shutterstock

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