The S&P 500 has a new leader with nearly 80% gains YTD, and it’s not what you think

Seagate Technology has taken the spot as the S&P 500’s leading performer this year, riding the AI boom to overtake the high-profile tech names that usually dominate the benchmark index

Seagate Technology Holdings (NASDAQ: STX) has surged 76.04% in 2025, making it the top performer in the index year-to-date. The stock hit a fresh 52-week high of $151.94 on Wednesday, climbing 4.76% and marking its eighth consecutive day of gains.

Seagate Technology price forecast

Among the 16 analysts covering Seagate, the consensus rating is “Moderate Buy,” with 11 buy recommendations and 5 holds. Notably, the STX stock has received zero sell ratings. Price targets range from a low of $85 to a high of $200.

STX 12-month price forecast. Source: TipRanks 

With shares trading at $151.94, Seagate is 11.98% above the average analyst price target of $127.67. 

The company faces a key test on July 22 when it reports fiscal Q4 2025 results. The Street expects earnings of $2.17 per share, representing 149.4% growth from the year-ago quarter.

Data storage demand drives momentum

Seagate’s rally reflects broader trends in data infrastructure demand. As the second-largest U.S. manufacturer of hard disk drives, the $30.8 billion company has benefited from a strong appetite for storage solutions across enterprise and consumer markets.

The momentum started with April’s Q3 earnings beat, when Seagate reported $1.90 per share and $2.2 billion in revenue, both above estimates. The stock jumped 11.6% as management guided for Q4 revenue of $2.4 billion and earnings of $2.40 per share. 

Strong demand for mass capacity storage, AI-integrated devices, and the Windows 11 refresh cycle has sustained investor interest.

Featured image via Shutterstock.

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