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Bitcoin (BTC) is poised to hit a new record high, with investment flows now the dominant market driver, according to Standard Chartered (STAN).
U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen $5.3 billion in inflows over the past three weeks, the investment bank said in emailed comments Thursday.
Adjusting for hedge fund basis trades, net real flow is estimated at over $4 billion, the bank said. The basis trade is a strategy that exploits the difference between the spot price of bitcoin and the price of the cryptocurrency in the futures market.
Strategy (MSTR) has increased its holdings to 555,450 BTC, or 2.6% of total future supply, which is locked at 21 million BTC. The company’s plan to raise $84 billion to buy more of the world’s largest cryptocurrency could bring its stash to over 6%, wrote Geoff Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered.
Next week’s 13F filings may reveal further institutional adoption, Standard Chartered said. Abu Dhabi’s sovereign fund already holds BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF (IBIT), and both the Swiss National Bank and Norges Bank have disclosed positions in MSTR.
New Hampshire passed a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill this week, the first U.S. state to do so, which signals growing policy alignment, the report added.
Given these developments, a second-quarter bitcoin target of $120,000 may be too conservative, the bank said, citing its previous forecast.
The bank has a year-end bitcoin price target of $200,000.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading around $101,000 at publication time.
Read more: Bitcoin to Hit New All-Time High Around $120K in Q2, Standard Chartered Says
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