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It’s fair to say that the gold market has fired its warning shot.
The take-profit signal is when real rates turn negative. As for markets, many things look mispriced today with a two to three-year lookout, ranging from incredibly low credit spreads, elevated equity valuation to subdued volatility. It’s fair to say that the gold market has fired its warning shot. Today with real rate still high and a recession seemingly faraway, it is too early to call the end of the ongoing gold rally. When there is a full-blown recession. Gold breakout can be seen as an ominous signal, and it is not difficult to imagine a range of geopolitical risk scenarios.
In deciding whether to chase or fade the recent gold rally, it might be useful to draw some inspiration from past breakout episodes. Here I define a “breakout” to be when the gold prices move 10% above the previous historical peak. Should history repeat itself, it is not too late to participate in the current gold rally. An investor with a two to three-year view could expect to see gold potentially double from here to more than $4,000.
Crypto bulls – at least those who didn’t betray their “laser eyes” PFP and sell previously – have had their day in the sun for the past 3 months as bitcoin and most other digital fiat alternatives soared, making it clear why, despite the difficult, it can be so very profitable to HODL, especially with the US is approaching the Minsky Moment of issuing $1 trillion in debt every 100 days, and interest on US debt, now at $1.1 trillion, is set to surpass Social Security spending and become the single largest government outlay before the end of the year. Now that rate cuts are off the table, interest on US debt – currently the second biggest government outlay at $1.1 trillion – will surpass social security and become the single biggest US expense before the end of 2024 at $1.6 trillion.
